Will the pinks arrive on schedule

Twenty-nine million pink salmon could be swimming in the salt water off British Columbia’s coast, waiting for their chance to journey up the Fraser and spawn.

Canada’s Department of Fisheries is anticipating a record-breaking number of pink salmon to enter the Fraser River this August. The salmon typically return to spawn every other year, and this year is expected to be one of the best returns on record.

But as Murray Ned, executive director of the Lower Fraser Fisheries Alliance, notes, expectations don’t always turn into reality.

Ned’s organization helps confirm salmon numbers after the run begins and also advocates for First Nations to get designated fishing times during the salmon run. He’s hopeful that humpbacked, nutrient-rich salmon will return in huge numbers to the Fraser River and its tributaries—but warns people shouldn’t count their salmon before they spawn.

This interview has been lightly edited for clarity and concision

FVC: Were you expecting this year to be as record-breaking as it's expected to be for pink salmon?

Murray Ned: One thing that'll come as a surprise is if the forecast actually transpires. It's just the forecast, and you never know until the fish actually show up. So I would suggest, yeah, a bit of surprise, because we haven't seen that many pinks on record for some time. And we hope that the DFO and those forecasts are reasonably accurate.

Ned said it would be a complicated process to figure out if the forecasts are accurate. Test fisheries in the ocean and in the Fraser River will help shape estimates, as will a hydrometric station near Mission. That station has an underwater vessel that uses sonar to count the fish. Biologists can use the data to see what kind of fish are heading upriver. (The Sema:th First Nation began a similar project on the Vedder River in 2021, which is still ongoing. You can read about that here.)

FVC: It sounds like you're not really going to know if the forecast is accurate until they're here.

Ned: Exactly. Frankly, we haven't had—I think they need 5 million for escapement.

Escapement is the number of salmon that are not caught by fisheries. For some salmon species, it means returning to the ocean—although not for pinks, which die shortly after spawning. The average planned escapement for pink salmon is at least 8 million fish, although the number could be higher if the run is larger than expected.

Ned: We've been barely meeting escapement the last few cycles, because they come every second year. So they've been a bit depleted and scarce numbers the last couple of cycles.

FVC: What's the role that pink salmon play in the Fraser River ecosystem?

Ned: That's a really good question, because obviously we need fish back for ourselves, but we also need fish back for animals. And as you mentioned, the nutrients for each of the tributaries themselves. When they come back in that kind of abundance, [pink salmon] are amazing in terms of not only providing for the Nations and stakeholders and others, but also for other animals: eagles, bears, and trees and other things. We're always hoping for good returns for all species, but anytime you can get some abundance this time of year, or any time in the year, then I think it's really good for the ecosystem.

Ned said they should know if the DFO was correct in its 29 million estimate by the end of August. He noted that part of the Lower Fraser Fisheries Alliance’s role was to help confirm the number of salmon and help First Nations along the river negotiate for fishing access with the Department of Fisheries. 

Ned: Back in the day, in the 1990s—if I can go back a few decades—there was a standing agreement and there were annual licenses provided when there was a lot of abundance for most of the species, the five salmon species. And typically, the Nations would have fisheries from Thursday to Sunday, so that's three days a week, all year. And then the following year you would just have those licenses renewed. So there was not too much need to engage with the DFO and negotiate openings—and closures, for that matter.

But if you fast forward to where we're at today, a few decades in, because of all of the stocks of constraint, the conservation concerns— just about every species has a conservation concern of some sort. So when you think about all these fish migrating all through the same system at the same time: you could have a lot of fish, like what we're expecting with the pinks, but you might still have stocks of concern, such as chinook or coho migrating through at the same time. So then you're not able to fish, because you want those stocks to be able to migrate to the headwaters and their home spawning grounds.

So even though there's expected abundance, there's still going to be challenges with Nations getting their food, social, and ceremonial needs, or even economic opportunities. So all that said, that's where the negotiations occur. It’s toggling back and forth, looking at the stocks of constraint as they’re migrating through, looking at the abundance of pinks that will be coming through, and then figuring out the sweet spot in terms of timing and your schedule to be able to get our Nations out to fish those abundant stocks.

Every hour, every day, is meaningful in terms of getting those opportunities. And that's why it's become so critical to have our biologists for the Lower Fraser Fisheries Alliance be able to ground truth with DFOs projections in season and pre-season.

Ned said that it was especially critical to get opportunities for fishing early, before later salmon runs (which are of greater concern) begin. Once the coho salmon return, First Nations fishers will need to switch from gill nets, which collect a wide variety of salmon, to more selective fishing practices like fish wheels—which look and work like a water mill with baskets to catch fish—as well as beach seins and dip nets.

Ned: Frankly, quite often [selective fishing gear options] are a bit challenging because of the cost of the nets. The cost of a fish wheel is probably upwards of about $150,000 to $200,000 these days. So not everybody's got those selective methods and gear available. So that's some of the challenge.

The first priority will be to try and attain the food, social and ceremonial needs. I think it's 70,000 pinks available for our food, social, ceremonial, and then secondarily, an opportunity for commercial sales with some of the pink salmon. So that will be our challenge. Also we help support the Nations to try and negotiate those subunits with DFO as well, for the economic commercial fisheries.

FVC: If those commercial fisheries end up being possible—to end on a bit of a lighter note—what’s the best way to cook a pink salmon?

Ned: The fresher you can get them out of the river, the better they will be. I would say, of the five salmon species, they might not be at the top of the food chain for our priority. But all the fish are important, of course. And if you get them early on, they're really, really good.

The other way you can do them is, they're really good smoked. A lot of people have been known to smoke them in the past. And again, same thing, you get them early and you clean them up, and you process them as quickly as you can.

Like any other salmon, they're good in any old way: if you want to barbecue them or fry them, there's good value in that.