Conservatives win Fraser Valley seats, but Liberals hold on to power

In an echo of the provincial election last fall, the Fraser Valley elected a wave of Conservative candidates Monday while watching the rest of the country tilt in the opposite direction.

Conservatives were elected in all five Fraser Valley ridings, with Independent Mike de Jong and Liberal returnee John Aldag losing high-profile races in Abbotsford and Langley, respectively.

The Conservatives look set to sit in opposition, but the Liberals may face their own challenges. Without a majority of seats in Parliament, Prime Minister Mark Carney may have to muster support from other MPs in order to govern.

As Monday turned to Tuesday, it was still unclear whether the Liberals had won the 172 seats necessary for a majority in the House of Commons. The Liberals were elected or led in 168 seats as of 1am.

You can find the latest seat count here, via Elections Canada.

Langley

The closest race in the valley were in Langley, where Conservatives incumbents Tamara Jansen and Tako Van Popta faced stiff challenges from Liberal challengers, with the NDP and Green votes having collapsed.

In the riding of Langley Township—Fraser Heights, Van Popta defeated Liberal John Aldag who had served in Parliament for seven years in the nearby riding of Cloverdale—Langley City. Aldag had resigned his seat in 2024 to run in the provincial election, but lost that race. He was drafted to run federally in Langley against Van Popta after the previous Liberal candidate dropped out of the race for health reasons.

Van Popta claimed 51% of the vote, while 42% of voters cast a ballot for Aldag. The NDP only picked up 4% of votes in the riding with the Greens only managing 1% of all ballots cast.

Jansen, who had won Aldag’s former seat after his resignation last year, looked set to retain her seat by the narrowest margin in the valley. As of late Monday, she was on track to claim 48% of the vote and defeat Liberal Kyle Latchford in a race separated by less than 1,000 votes for most of the night. The NDP and the Greens fared just as poorly as in the other Langley riding.

Abbotsford and Mission and Chilliwack

The riding of Abbotsford—South Langley had been one of the most-closely watched in BC, but turned out to offer little change from past elections.

The retirement of longtime Conservative MP Ed Fast had prompted the Conservatives to seek a new candidate for the area. But although former provincial cabinet minister and MLA Mike de Jong had sought the Conservative’s nomination, the party rejected him and chose a young farmer, Sukhman Gill, to carry the banner instead.

Gill kept a low profile during the campaign and didn’t participate in all-candidates meetings or interviews with the media. De Jong, meanwhile, was everywhere. He pledged his support for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and earned endorsements from both Fast and former Mayor Henry Braun. De Jong’s prominence and campaign experience raised the possibility that he and Gill would split the right-of-centre vote and pave the way for Liberal candidate Kevin Gillies to claim an unlikely victory.

None of that happened, however. Instead, Gill was able to hang onto the vast majority of the conservative vote, more than doubling de Jong’s total and appearing on 43% of all ballots. Gillies claimed a little more than 30% of the vote in his riding. That’s better than the Liberal candidate in 2021, but would likely not have been enough to win, even if there had been more of a split. De Jong, meanwhile, lagged behind at 18%, a figure similar to other prominent but unsuccessful provincial independent candidates in recent years.

In the two least dramatic races, Conservative incumbents Brad Vis and Mark Strahl retained their seats in Mission-Matsqui-Abbotsford and Chilliwack-Hope respectively. Both claimed more than 50% of the vote in their respective ridings, with their Liberal challengers trailing far behind. Prominent local school trustee Teri Westerby carried the NDP to its best Fraser Valley result locally, but even then, the party barely picked up 7% of the vote.

Across the region, Liberal candidates finished second, with the NDP a distant third. That mirrored national trends that saw voters desert the NDP for the Liberal Party.

As votes continued to be counted late Monday evening, the future of the next Parliament remained uncertain, with the Liberals holding 168 seats, four fewer than the number needed for a majority. That means the party may need to rely upon other parties to pass legislation and a budget—and avoid another election.

The Conservatives had 144 seats, the Bloc won in 23 ridings, and the NDP were reduced to just seven electoral districts. The Greens held just one seat via leader Elizabeth May. A slight shift in those numbers could make a Liberal minority government significantly more stable. Or it could require the party to gain the support either of the Conservative opposition, or the separatist Bloc.