Back in blue: The BC Conservatives go nine-for-nine in the Fraser Valley

The NDP has been wiped off the Fraser Valley electoral map, even as the party still hopes to cling to power by a razor-thin margin.

With most votes now counted, the NDP have been elected or lead in 46 ridings, the BC Conservatives have the edge in 45, and the Greens have won two. But as of Sunday evening, with some ballots still left to be counted, 11 seats were still too close to call. (Of those, the NDP lead in six ridings and the Conservatives are ahead in five.)

Forty-seven seats are the bare minimum needed to form government, and NDP leader David Eby has suggested he would look to work with the Green Party—as the party did in 2017, when the NDP came to power with 41 seats and the Greens three. But even if the two Green MLAs acquiesce, and the parties end up with a combined 47 or 48 seats, such a government would still be precariously balanced. A non-voting speaker will also need to be selected from the MLAs, potentially leading to legislative deadlocks.

The tightness of the race will also prompt to automatic recounts in several ridings. Those will take place next week. You can read CBC’s break-down of what comes next here.

In the Fraser Valley, however, there’s little doubt about who will represent local voters in Victoria.

Wipeout

Four years ago, the NDP broke through in the Fraser Valley, winning five of eight seats thanks, in part, to migration from the Vancouver area into the valley.

But in 2024—despite four more years of population growth—the BC Conservatives swept the valley, turning ridings that had been drifting left in recent years back to the right.

The NDP losses included its agriculture minister Pam Alexis, who was handily beat by BC Conservative Reann Gasper in Abbotsford-Mission. Alexis was one of three NDP cabinet ministers to lose their seats.

The BC Conservatives unsurprisingly won with ease in ridings dominated by rural voters, including a new Aldergrove-area riding created just before the election. In Abbotsford South, Langley-Abbotsford, and Abbotsford West, the Conservatives picked up nearly 60% of the vote. But the party also triumphed in more urban areas, where the NDP had proven strong in recent elections, and where electoral redistricting seemed likely to favour the party. In fast-growing Langley, the BC Conservatives defeated NDP incumbents Megan Dykeman and Andrew Mercier, despite their respective ridings becoming markedly more urban after the reconfiguration of BC’s electoral districts.

In Chilliwack, the BC Conservatives swept the city’s two ridings. Both races featured particularly interesting backstories.

In Chilliwack North, BC Conservative Heather Maahs toppled NDP incumbent Dan Coulter. Maahs was a long-time school board trustee who had become a conservative ally of Barry Neufeld; Coulter, prior to his 2020 election to legislature, was a progressive and the board’s chair. (You can find a timeline of the Chilliwack School Board controversies related to Barry Neufeld here.) Coulter had most recently served as the NDP’s Minister of State for Infrastructure and Transit.

In Chilliwack-Cultus Lake, meanwhile, Á'a:líya Warbus toppled the NDP’s Kelli Paddon, who had served as parliamentary secretary for gender equity. Warbus, is the daughter of former lieutenant-governor Steven Point, and will become the first Indigenous member of the legislature for a community that’s home to numerous First Nation bands and more than 10,000 Indigenous people.

Finally, the BC Conservatives’ Tony Luck triumphed in the sprawling Fraser-Nicola riding that includes Kent, Harrison Hot Springs, Hope, and the Fraser Canyon. Luck will replace long-time BC United MLA Jackie Tegart.

Some additional points of interest:

By-elections—or not

Saturday’s vote will likely trigger school board by-elections in Abbotsford and Chilliwack, following the election of Korky Neufeld in Abbotsford West and Heather Maahs in Chilliwack North. Neither vote is likely to significantly tip the balance of power on the respective school boards.

In Langley Township, however, there won’t be a by-election, despite councillor Misty Van Popta winning a seat in the legislature. Van Popta told the Langley Advance Times that she won’t resign and will continue to serve on council. Van Popta is a member of Township mayor Eric Woodward’s Contract With Langley slate. That party has controlled six of nine council seats since 2022.

It’s very rare for a politician to concurrently serve both in the legislature and on a municipal council. Pitt Meadows councillor Doug Bing attempted to do both jobs after being elected as a BC Liberal MLA but ran into criticism from colleagues.

Van Popta faces a particular challenge given the finely balanced nature of the BC legislature and the importance of every single vote.

Swing vote?

If the Conservatives manage to actually form government, every vote will be crucial. And that will put increased scrutiny on a candidate like Warbus, who told us earlier this year that she saw herself as a bridge between communities and ideologies. John Rustad has increasingly taken stances against moves to enshrine more rights in law for Indigenous people, opposing both putting the United Nations’ Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People (UNDRIP) into BC law, and the Haida Nation Aboriginal Title Agreement. Warbus told us that she could see arguments against BC’s UNDRIP legislation, but that the rights the legislation intended to protect must be preserved.

When we spoke to her in the spring, Warbus said she was still trying to sort out exactly how she would vote if those issues came before her in the legislature.

Just before midnight on election night, Warbus said in a statement that she would work with John Rustad to focus on economic prosperity, but everyone would need to put British Columbians first.

“This next parliament will be the most diverse in BC history and the pressing issues we face will force all of us to put the province ahead of party and ego,” she wrote.

Aldag’s bet

The John Aldag political rollercoaster ride has come to a rest, at least for now.

Aldag, a parks official who ran the Fort Langley Historic Site, won election to Parliament as a federal Liberal in 2015, sweeping into Ottawa on the back of Justin Trudeau’s popularity. Four years later, he was out, ousted in the 2019 federal election by Conservative Tamara Jansen. Two years and a pandemic later, and Aldag reclaimed his seat, winning a rematch with Jansen, who had featured in several controversies.

This spring, with the federal Liberal fortunes in the dumps and the BC NDP looking like it would easily squash BC’s two squabbling right-wing parties, Aldag quit Ottawa, joined the NDP, and started campaigning for a seat in Victoria. It didn’t work.

Aldag was sent to try to win the new riding of Langley-Abbotsford, an electoral district with a huge rural swath of right-wing voters. Even if BC United and the Conservatives had split the right-of-centre vote, Aldag would have had a tough time taking the riding. But with BC United effectively disbanded, Conservative candidate Harman Bhangu claimed more than 55% of the vote. (Karen Long, who had planned to run for BC United before that party’s collapse, campaigned as an independent, but only garnered 4% of ballots.)

Aldag ended up with just 34% of the total vote, the lowest share of his political career.

Aldag told The Current he had gone “all-in on this election,” and didn’t have a backup plan if he wasn’t elected. He said he wouldn’t rush into any decisions, political or otherwise.

Aldag’s federal seat is still vacant, with Trudeau’s Liberals yet to call a by-election for Cloverdale-Langley City. They will need to call a by-election by Nov. 30 at the latest.

The majority

The narrow margin of victory will trigger all sorts of political maneuvering in Victoria. Any sickness, discontent, or absence by a single member of the legislature could change everything—or trigger a new election.

A speaker will need to be chosen from the MLAs, further complicating the matter. (The speaker is essentially a referee for the legislature, and only votes in the event of a tie.) Typically, the speaker is chosen from the governing party’s ranks—but that would mean cutting in to an already precarious vote margin. When Abbotsford’s Darryl Plecas left the BC Liberals to serve as speaker under the NDP government in 2017, he was already an established MLA discontented with his party. The Conservatives are so new as a party that there is likely no one like Plecas among its MLAs.

So things may get very messy. It’s also possible that if no stable government can be found, another election will have to be called. Much could depend on how the final votes swing this week, and what happens in ridings where recounts are needed. (Elections BC is currently counting mail-in ballots and out-of-district ballots from polls that did not have electronic tabulators. The final, official count will get underway between Oct. 26 and 28.)

The opposition usually votes against every government bill—but the Conservatives or the NDP may hold their fire until they determine the circumstances will set themselves up for a majority. The pending federal election could also play a role in any future BC election plans.