The election to come: Abbotsford and Mission

No longer a stronghold, Abbotsford will be a political battleground this October when voters head to the polls.

It has been decades since a provincial election was accompanied by so much uncertainty over just who might represent residents in the BC legislature.

Demographic shifts, a prominent retirement, redrawn ridings, and a surge of popularity for the BC Conservatives mean that any one of three parties could end up with a majority of the central Fraser Valley’s seats.

Read our other preview stories on the upcoming provincial campaign in the Fraser Valley: Chilliwack | Langley

Abbotsford South

Riding: All of urban Abbotsford south of Highway 1/South Fraser Way and Old Yale Road. Plus Sumas Prairie, Huntingdon, UFV, and the area surrounding Abbotsford International Airport.

Incumbent: Bruce Banman (BC Conservatives)

Running again? Yes.

Opponents: Markus Delves (BC United); TBD (others)

Analysis: For the third time in the last decade and a half, the BC United/BC Liberals face the task of retaking one of their strongholds after the MLA they had backed deserted their party. First it was John van Dongen. Then Darryl Plecase. Now Bruce Banman, who left BC United for the BC Conservatives last year.

You can read about the history of the riding here. 

This year’s election will see BC United back Markus Delves to defeat Banman. It’s a task that Delves tried, and failed, to accomplish during the battle for the BC Liberals’ nomination four years ago.

Delves is a well-known face in his party and in Abbotsford political circles, having been deeply involved in the Abbotsford First slate that rose to prominence at the municipal level a decade ago. Delves has also had the backing of BC United (formerly BC Liberal) figures like Mike de Jong—but not so much support that he wasn’t defeated by Banman four years ago.

Banman, meanwhile, is a former mayor of Abbotsford—albeit one who is polarizing and only served one term in that position before being defeated. Banman’s significant name recognition advantage has only been bolstered by his prominence as the BC Conservatives’s second MLA. A populist who was not overly associated with conservative politics prior to his crossing of the floor, Banman will think he has a good shot at keeping BC United from retaking their seat.

The big question, though, is whether he can grab enough of the right-wing vote to avoid a conservative split that allows the NDP to seize the seat. The NDP has been growing its share of the vote in Abbotsford South for a decade now, and as more people move to the Fraser Valley from more progressive parts of the province, the region is becoming more of an electoral toss-up. The shifting of the riding’s boundaries (something that is done every two elections by a non-partisan commission) will likely only continue this pattern. Aldergrove has been removed from the Abbotsford South ridings. So too has a huge chunk of rural Abbotsford to the south and west of the airport. Both were areas where the BC Liberals had chalked up huge vote counts in previous elections

The true strength of the BC NDP in the riding, though,is hard to gauge because previous years have seen the party struggle to recruit solid, local candidates in the district. If the BC NDP can recruit a familiar face to run in Abbotsford South, Banman or Delves will need to consolidate the right-wing vote if they hope to win.

Abbotsford West

Riding: Central Abbotsford west of Highway 11 and, mostly, north of South Fraser Way and Old Yale Road. Rural Abbotsford north of Highway 1 and between Bradner Road and Highway 11.

Incumbent: Mike De Jong (BC United)

Running again? No.

Opponents: Korky Neufeld (BC Conservatives); TBD (others)

Analysis: As unstable Abbotsford South has been in recent years, Abbotsford West has been the reverse. Mike De Jong has held the riding for three decades. But he has now announced his retirement, leaving a gaping hole that BC United will have to fill—and inevitable questions about just how committed De Jong’s voters are to their old MLA’s party.

BC United have not yet announced a new candidate, but whoever it is will have their work cut out. The BC Conservatives have nominated a solid candidate in Korky Neufeld, who had been serving as chair of the Abbotsford School Board. Neufeld has served several terms on the board, though not all consecutively, and has both political and personal connections that will make him tough to beat. At least in a straight-up race.

With the NDP likely aiming for 40% of the ballots, Neufeld will need to smash the tally of his BC United opponent, or the BC Conservatives’ current polling numbers will need to collapse, to keep the riding from going orange.

The BC NDP have yet to nominate its candidate, but the last two years has seen Preet Rai run for the party in the riding. Rai is also a long term school board trustee and his run would set up a battle between colleagues. In 2020, Rai claimed 36% of the vote, well behind De Jong. The riding is far from a two-party race, though, with both Conservative and Green candidates claiming more than 9% of the vote last election.

The redrawn boundaries of the riding should be moderately more friendly to the BC NDP. A chunk of Bradner and northeastern Langley has been removed from the district, and an urban neighbourhood surrounding Yale Secondary School has been added.

Abbotsford-Mission

Riding: All of urban Mission, plus most Abbotsford neighbourhoods in the Sandy Hill, Clayburn, and Auguston areas, and Eagle Mountain.

Incumbent: Pam Alexis (BC NDP)

Running again? Yes.

Opponents: Reann Gasper (BC Conservatives), TBD (others)

Analysis: Of all the Fraser Valley’s ridings, this one seems the least likely to offer any surprises. Alexis, who had been Mission’s mayor, narrowly won in 2020, seizing the riding from BC Liberal incumbent Simon Gibson. Since late 2022, she has been serving in a prominent role as Minister of Agriculture, with no major incidents to speak of.

Mission, like all Fraser Valley communities, has been growing more friendly towards the NDP, and the prospect of a right-wing split is also likely to be beneficial. But the redrawn riding is also likely to make it extremely hard to defeat Alexis.

In 2020, Alexis’s riding included the communities of Dewdney, Deroche, and Lake Errock—all rural areas and BC Liberal strongholds. Those have been excised from Abbotsford-Mission District. Meanwhile, a large chunk of Mission’s core—basically all the built-up area west of Cedar Street—has been added to the riding. Those tweaks seem likely to solidify Alexis’s hold.

To beat Alexis, a party will need an extremely strong candidate. But the local politician with potentially the best shot at dethroning Alexis—Mission Coun. Jag Gill—told both the BC United and BC Conservative parties that he didn’t want to run provincially. (We reported this in our Feb. 23 newsletter.)

With Gill off the table, BC United have not nominated a candidate, but the BC Conservatives have. They’ll run Reann Gasper, a pastor and realtor. Gasper hasn’t held political office but she did run in Abbotsford’s 2022 municipal election, finishing 17th of 21 candidates.

Next, we’ll look at the ridings in Langley. (We are including the Langley-Abbotsford riding in that set of previews because most residents in the district live in the Township.)